Teams About to Fall Out of the 2026 Playoffs
At this stage of the season, the standings already show a clear divide between teams rising toward the playoff picture and those slipping into dangerous territory. Based on current performance trends, momentum, and realistic long-term projection, some Eastern and Western Conference clubs are rapidly approaching the point where their playoff hopes could disappear for good. Meanwhile, a few underrated teams still hold pathways to climb back into contention. Here is a breakdown of who is fading fast – and who could enter the race soon.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Buffalo Sabres – 14 pts
Their -14 goal differential and five-game losing streak show a team collapsing defensively and mentally. Zero road wins (0-5-2) is a fatal sign for long-term survival. They are slipping too far behind the pack.
Washington Capitals – 17 pts
A 3-6-1 slide in their last 10 and no scoring consistency make it unlikely they can keep pace with the crowded mid-tier. They simply lack the firepower to climb back.
Toronto Maple Leafs – 18 pts
Despite offensive talent, the -4 differential, 1-4 road record, and four straight losses scream structural problems. Too many blown leads and too little defensive support.
Columbus Blue Jackets – 19 pts
They are feisty, but a 55-55 goal line and streaky identity aren’t enough. Other teams in the race have stronger rosters and more reliable goaltending.
On the Brink (could fall out next)
Philadelphia Flyers – 21 pts
Their 50–46 GF/GA is solid, but their talent ceiling is limited. One losing streak could push them below the cut.
Florida Panthers – 19 pts
They’ve won 2 straight, but their defensive weaknesses (51 GA) place them dangerously close to falling behind the stronger East.
Teams That Will Enter (and why)
New York Rangers – 20 pts
The elite 8-1-1 road record tells the real story – this team can win anywhere. They have stabilized and are trending upward fast.
Boston Bruins – 22 pts
They are inconsistent but still structured, physical, and deep. Their 8-3-0 home record keeps them secure.
Ottawa Senators – 22 pts
A strong 6-1-3 stretch gives them momentum, and their offense (64 GF) is good enough to push them in if they stay healthy.
Detroit Red Wings – 20 pts
Up-and-down recent form, but their roster is playoff-quality. If the defense improves slightly, they climb back into a spot.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
About to Be Cut Off (and unlikely to recover)
Calgary Flames – 12 pts
The -18 differential and only two road wins are season-killing issues. They are too far behind and too weak offensively.
St. Louis Blues – 16 pts
Allowing 71 goals is catastrophic. Their roster lacks the speed and finishing ability to compete with top Western teams.
Nashville Predators – 16 pts
A horrible 1-4-2 road record and -17 differential show they cannot sustain winning hockey. Their margin for error is gone.
Vancouver Canucks – 18 pts
Negative momentum (-11 differential, 3 straight losses) and major defensive issues leave them falling out quickly.
San Jose Sharks – 19 pts
Despite a good recent stretch, their foundation is not strong enough to survive the long grind.
On the Brink (next to drop)
Minnesota Wild – 18 pts
Their defense is too leaky (59 GA), and their offense disappears for long stretches. They are slipping behind deeper teams.
Vegas Golden Knights – 19 pts
Four straight losses and no identity right now. They can still recover, but the warning signs are real.
Teams That Will Enter (and why)
Edmonton Oilers – 20 pts
Despite the shaky start, their elite scoring core keeps them alive. If they stabilize goaltending, they surge into the race.
Chicago Blackhawks – 20 pts
Surprisingly steady at 5-3-2 on the road and +11 differential – signs of a young team breaking through earlier than expected.
Winnipeg Jets – 20 pts
A solid defensive base (47 GA) and consistent two-way play make them a strong candidate to secure a playoff position.
Utah HC – 21 pts
Good balance, good scoring (58 GF), and tough at home (5-1-1). They remain very much in the mix.
Summary: Who Is Falling Out & Who Gets In
- EAST Out: Buffalo, Washington, Toronto, Columbus
- EAST In: NY Rangers, Boston, Ottawa, Detroit
- WEST Out: Calgary, St. Louis, Nashville, Vancouver, San Jose
- WEST In: Edmonton, Chicago, Winnipeg, Utah